With fewer than two months until the November 2022 General Election, campaign season is in full swing. These midterm elections will be the first under President Biden, who has maximized razor-thin Democratic majorities in the U.S. Congress for his first two years in office. The Republican Party hopes to regain control over the U.S. Congress and retain its advantage in several incumbent governor seats. Historically, the incumbent president’s party tends to lose seats in the midterms while the opposition party gains seats. The Republican Party hopes that those historical trends play in its favor. The Democratic Party hopes to retain its majority in Congress and capitalize on the widespread backlash to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
Florida will hold elections for various statewide offices this year. The most notable races will be for Governor and U.S. Senator. Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is up for reelection, facing current U.S. Representative and former Florida Governor Charlie Crist (D). Governor DeSantis has been known for his focus on cultural issues, opposition to restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic, and parental involvement in public schooling. His focus on LGBT rights has earned him significant media attention, most notably for signing FL HB1557, also known as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill that bans the teaching of sexual orientation to students below the third grade. The Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average has DeSantis with a 4.8% lead over Crist, with the most recent poll showing the incumbent governor with a seven point lead over the former governor, Crist.
Incumbent U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R) is also up for reelection and will face current U.S. Representative Val Demings (D) FL-10. The RCP average has Rubio up 2.8% over Demings with the most recent poll showing Rubio with a four point advantage.
Michigan has one of the more prominent gubernatorial races in the country. The candidates are incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Republican nominee Tudor Dixon. Abortion has become a significant issue in this campaign. Governor Whitmer has been outspoken in her support for abortion rights, even going as far as filing an injunction in Michigan courts to prevent the enforcement of a law dating back to the 1930s that criminalizes abortion and those that conduct abortions. In a poll conducted by WDIV/Detroit, most voters have listed abortion and women’s rights as their primary issues. The RCP polling average in the Michigan governor’s race shows Whitmer leading Dixon by 9.5%. Recent polls since August have Whitmer leading by as low as four points or as much as 16 points.
In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Senator Rob Portman (R) chose not to run for reelection. Incumbent U.S. Representative Tim Ryan (D) of OH-13 won the Democratic primary and will face author J.D. Vance (R). Vance is a first-time office seeker who won Donald Trump’s endorsement despite heavily criticizing Trump during the 2016 primary. If elected, Vance promised to support the former president’s agenda. In contrast, Ryan has tried to portray himself as a moderate in a state that has begun to shift in favor of the Republicans, most notably by opposing President Biden’s student loan forgiveness initiative and declining to appear with President Biden at a Cleveland event in July. The RCP average has Vance leading by 2.2%. Recent polls show Vance up by between one and four points, and another has Ryan with a one point lead.
Like some of the states mentioned above, Wisconsin will elect a governor and a U.S. senator in the 2022 November General Election. Incumbent Governor Tony Evers (D) is running for reelection, where he will face Tim Michels. Evers has campaigned on his efforts to fix the state’s roads, improve public schools, and sign a bipartisan tax cut. Michels has campaigned on prioritizing jobs and Wisconsin’s economy if elected to office. The RCP average has Evers leading Michels by 2.2% although one recent poll showed Michels with a one point lead.