The 2024 election brought a major shift in the political landscape, with Republicans making sweeping gains across the country. Former President Donald Trump returned to the White House, winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote. The GOP regained control of the Senate and made significant advances in the House, positioning the party to shape the national agenda. In key states, Republicans gained ground in most state legislatures and won notable gubernatorial races.

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U.S. Presidential Race

Donald Trump (R) triumphed in his non-consecutive reelection as the 47^th U.S. president, defeating U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (D). Trump defeated Harris by margins that were even larger than polling predicted, with 291 electoral votes as of November 6. Trump also won the popular vote by nearly 5 million votes, the first time a Republican has won the popular vote in a presidential election since 2004. 

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GOP Regains Control of the U.S. Senate

Nationally, Senate Republicans gained a majority in the Senate, gaining seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, with a few other states still too early to call. Ohio and Montana are notable as GOP challengers Tim Sheehy (MT) and Bernie Moreno (OH) successfully defeated longtime Democratic Senators, Jon Tester (MT) and Sherrod Brown (OH), respectively. Additionally, West Virginia Governor Jim Justice will move to the U.S. Senate, filling the seat of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D).

At the time of this writing, Republicans will have at least 52 seats to the Democrats’ 43 seats. Outstanding are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona. Democrats were however able to fend off a challenge in Wisconsin despite Trump winning the state, with incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) besting GOP challenger Eric Hovde by less than 30,000 votes, or less than one percentage point. 

The Pennsylvania Senate race in particular was one of the most closely watched in the country, with economic issues and healthcare policy taking center stage in debates. As of November 6, the U.S. Senate race between longtime incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Casey (D) and Dave McCormick (R) had not been called, but McCormick led by .87% of the reported vote. 

In Michigan, which Donald Trump carried, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) currently leads former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R) by about a percentage point with 95% of the votes reporting. In Nevada, GOP challenger Sam Brown currently leads incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) by about 6,000 votes (half a percentage point), with 85% of the votes in. Additionally, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) leads Kari Lake (R), in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, by two percentage points with 60% of the votes in.

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U.S. House of Representatives

Control of the U.S. House is expected to come down to a handful of seats. As of the afternoon of November 6, Republicans have secured 200 seats to the Democrats’ 181 seats. 218 seats are needed for control of the House. 

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State Legislative Elections

Republicans Flip Michigan House

In Michigan, Democrats won the majority in 2022. However, Republicans are projected to win, or currently lead in, 58 of the state’s 110 House races, setting up a 58-52 majority for the GOP. Democrats outspent Republicans 4:1, with thirteen different races each surpassing $1 million in spending. 

Minnesota House Evenly Divided

In Minnesota, the DFL (Democratic Farmer Labor) party came into Election Day with a trifecta, maintaining control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s office. In the House, the DFL party came into the Election with a 6 seat majority. As of November 6, Republicans have picked up a number of seats, leaving the House split at 67-67. However, two races that DFLers/Democrats currently lead in will trigger a recount. Incumbent Rep. Brad Tabke (D) leads Aaron Paul (R) by only 13 votes, while incumbent Rep. Dan Wolgamott (D) has a 28 vote lead over Sue Ek (R).

Dems Make Up Ground in Wisconsin

In a state that split for Donald Trump (R) for President and Tammy Baldwin (D) for U.S. Senate, Democrats broke the GOP supermajority in the State Senate on Election Day and picked up a total of 10 seats in the state Assembly. 

Pennsylvania House Too Close To Call

Democrats came into Election Day with a one seat state House majority, 102-101, while the GOP held a 28-22 majority in the state Senate. Democrats flipped the House two years ago, and are hopeful to maintain control this year. Control of the House will boil down to the results of a handful of House seats, notably the 72nd House District, held by a Democratic incumbent in a heavily-Trump area. Republicans will maintain control of the state Senate, losing one seat in the Harrisburg area but potentially flipping another in Northeast Philadelphia.

Arizona Close With Votes Left to Count

Republicans came into Election Day with a 31-29 majority in the House and a 16-14 majority in the Senate.  With the votes still being counted as of the afternoon of November 6, it is too early to tell which party will have control of each chamber, although a tie in the Senate is possible.

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Notable Gubernatorial Elections

There were no major surprises when it came to gubernatorial elections this year. Notably, former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R), defeated Joyce Craig (D) to succeed Governor Chris Sununu (R), who chose not to seek re-election. Additionally, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein (D) will succeed Roy Cooper (D) as Governor in North Carolina and U.S. Senator Mike Braun (R) will succeed Eric Holcomb (R) as Governor of Indiana. 

Other winners include a mix of incumbents and new faces: Patrick Morrisey (R-West Virginia), incumbent Greg Gianforte (R-Montana), Kelly Armstrong (R-North Dakota), incumbent Spencer Cox (R-Utah), Mike Kehoe (R-Missouri), Bob Ferguson (D-Washington), incumbent Phil Scott (R-Vermont), and Matt Meyer (D-Delaware).

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