The 2024 General Election will be a defining moment for both state and national politics across the United States. With control of the White House, Congress, and numerous state legislatures at stake, this election will shape the policy direction of the country for years to come. Voter turnout is expected to surge as both parties seek to gain or maintain power in key battlegrounds across the nation.

At the federal level, the U.S. Presidential race will be the centerpiece of the election, drawing attention from all corners of the country. The outcome will not only influence the direction of the executive branch but will also play a significant role in determining the composition of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, where every seat matters in the fight for legislative control.

Beyond the national contests, state-level elections—particularly gubernatorial and legislative races—will be just as consequential. These races often determine policy outcomes on critical issues such as healthcare, education, and voting rights, making them key to shaping the political landscape in the states.

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the 2024 elections, focusing on the presidential race, key Senate and House contests, gubernatorial elections, and state legislatures across the country.

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The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: A High-Stakes Showdown

The 2024 U.S. presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is contentious and highly polarized. Both campaigns are focused on seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Kamala Harris, serving as vice president since 2021, is running on the Democratic ticket following President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek a second term. Her campaign emphasizes healthcare, economic opportunity, climate resilience, and reproductive freedom. Harris also aims to broaden her appeal among voters who might see her as a new voice for leadership.

Donald Trump, the 45th U.S. president, is seeking a return to the White House. Trump’s campaign is focused on portraying himself as the true populist, railing against what he calls “woke” liberalism, economic mismanagement, and alleged corruption within the Democratic establishment. His campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), remains central, and he continues to appeal to his populist base with promises to restore economic growth, secure borders, and reduce government intervention.

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Critical U.S. Senate Races That Could Shift the Balance of Power

Democrats and aligned independents have a 51-49 Senate majority in the 118th Congress. Democrats face a tough map in 2024 after gaining a seat in the 2022 midterm. Of the 34 Senate elections scheduled for 2024, Democrats and allied independents are the defending party in twenty-three contests and Republicans in just eleven. Democrats-turned-independents Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (W.Va.) did not run again. With the West Virginia seat of retiring Senator Manchin likely to be won by Republican Governor Jim Justice, Democrats will need to sweep the seven most competitive contests to get to fifty seats if they manage to avoid an upset elsewhere.

Senate seats held by Jon Tester (D-MT), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will be the hardest for Democrats to retain. Races in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are also competitive. Only two Republican incumbents face any challenge—Rick Scott (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas).

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Competitive U.S. House Races in Swing Districts

The 2024 U.S. House elections are poised to be highly competitive, with control of the chamber hanging in the balance. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the 118^th House, which they won in 2022 by a slim margin. However, Democrats aim to reclaim control by capitalizing on Republican divisions that have resulted in one of the least productive Houses in American history.

The Republican majority is slim, meaning both parties are focusing heavily on a small number of highly competitive districts that could determine control of the House. Republicans are eager to expand their majority and continue pushing a conservative agenda focused on deregulation, lower taxes, and cultural issues like school curriculum and border security. Democrats, however, aim for a strong turnout among women, young people, and voters of color, particularly in suburban areas, to retake control of the chamber.

The 2024 elections will feature several toss-up races, many in swing districts where voters are closely divided between the two major parties. Suburban districts will be pivotal, especially in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. The national political environment, shaped by the economy, social issues, and the presidential race, will determine the outcome of many close House races. While Republicans are poised to gain in rural and working-class areas, Democrats can capitalize on dissatisfaction with extreme Republican positions on social issues, especially in suburban districts.

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Gubernatorial Races: Power at the State Level

The 2024 gubernatorial elections feature high-stakes showdowns in several states, with incumbents facing formidable challengers and open seats up for grabs. In total, there are 11 gubernatorial races on the ballot in 2024. Heading into November, there are 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors. Two races have received national attention for their competitiveness.

New Hampshire

Governor Chris Sununu (R) announced in 2023 that he would not seek re-election to another term. To replace Sununu, Republicans nominated former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, while Democrats nominated Joyce Craig, the Mayor of Manchester. The first poll released post-primary showed Ayotte with a slight edge over Craig, about 3%. The Cook Political Report rates this race as a “Toss Up”.

North Carolina

With Governor Roy Cooper (D) term-limited, North Carolina will have a new governor. The general election will see Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R) facing off against Attorney General Josh Stein (D). RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) polling average shows Stein with a lead of 9.5%, despite polls showing Donald Trump neck-and-neck with Vice President Kamala Harris (Trump has a 0.5% lead according to the RCP average). The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Lean Democrat.”

New Governors in 2025

In 2024, eight of the eleven gubernatorial races, including New Hampshire and North Carolina, are open seats. The Cook Political Report rates Delaware as “Solid D”, Washington as “Likely D”,  and Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia as “Solid R”. In the states where governors are running for re-election, Cook rates all three incumbents, Governors Greg Gianforte in Montana, Spencer Cox in Utah, and Phil Scott in Vermont, as “Solid R”.

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State Legislative Races: The Battle for Control

In addition to the gubernatorial and Senate races, state legislative races will be critical in shaping the political landscape for 2025. Several chambers are in play, and a shift in control could majorly impact various state-level policies. Among the most competitive battles considered “toss-ups” are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

Arizona

Republicans narrowly control both chambers in the Arizona State Legislature, with a 16–14 majority in the Senate and a 31–29 majority in the House. Democrats are hotly contesting control of both chambers, with the outcome of the 2024 General Elections likely to impact education, healthcare, and voting rights policy significantly.

Michigan

Democrats gained control of both chambers of the Michigan legislature in 2022 for the first time in decades, and they will be working hard to maintain that majority. With Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) in office, Democrats have successfully advanced a legislative agenda. In 2024, Republicans aim to retake control of the House, where Democrats have a 56–54 majority. Michigan does not have any Senate races in 2024.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire legislature is often closely divided, and 2024 will be no exception. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House (197–191) and Senate (14–10). However, Democrats see an opportunity to flip control in this purple state. The House has flipped control six times since 2006, while the Senate has flipped control four times in the same period.

Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania House is narrowly Democratic, while Republicans hold a slim majority in the Senate. Both chambers could see significant shifts in 2024, especially with high voter turnout expected. Democrats took control of the state House in 2022 for the first time in over a decade. Republicans have maintained a majority in the Senate since the mid-1990s. Republicans have a 28–22 majority in the Senate, while Democrats have a 102–101 majority in the House. 

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