As the calendar flips to fall, New Jersey’s political landscape is heating up with the November 4 general election less than two months away. Voters will head to the polls to elect a new governor, as incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is term-limited after winning two terms, and to decide all 80 seats in the New Jersey State Assembly. With no Senate races this cycle, the focus is squarely on the executive branch and the lower house of the legislature. This preview breaks down the high-stakes gubernatorial contest. It spotlights the most closely contested Assembly races, where shifts could significantly reshape state policy on issues ranging from taxes to education.

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New Jersey 2025 Gubernatorial Election: Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli

The governor’s contest pits two familiar faces against each other.

Current U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill (D), a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, won her current seat in Congress in 2018, flipping New Jersey’s 11th congressional district, which had been held by a Republican since 1985. Sherrill won the crowded six-person June 2025 Democratic primary election with a commanding 13.3-point lead. Sherrill received 34% of the vote; the next highest vote getter received 20.7% of the vote. Sherrill chose Centenary University President Dale Caldwell as her running mate for Lieutenant Governor.

Sherrill’s opponent, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R), is making his third attempt at the governor’s mansion. Despite losing to Murphy by 3.2 points in 2021 (52.22–48) and failing to secure the Republican nomination in 2017, Ciattarelli overwhelmingly won the June 2025 Republican primary and chose Morris County Sheriff James Gannon as his running mate.

Polling shows Sherrill with a consistent lead. The RealClearPolitics average shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by an average of 8.8 percentage points. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both have this race listed as “Lean Democratic.” One recent poll showed Sherrill with just a two-point lead, indicating the race could be tightening as the General Election approaches.

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State Assembly Races

Democratic Assemblymembers hold a solid majority of seats in the New Jersey Assembly by a 52–28 margin. Out of the 80 incumbents, 76 are running for re-election compared to only 60 in 2023. Notably, the State Assembly has seen a Democratic majority since 2001.

In New Jersey, there are 40 legislative districts. Each district has one Senator and two Assemblymembers.

Several districts could be in play, including:

• LD 2 (Atlantic County): Republicans swept the seats in 2021, but Democrats hold a voter registration edge in 2025.
• LD 3 (Salem, Cumberland, Gloucester): Democrats bounced back here in 2023, reclaiming all three seats after a brief Republican sweep.
• LD 8 and LD 30: These split districts remain competitive.
• LD 11 (Monmouth County): A perennial battleground that has frequently shifted between parties.

Two Democratic incumbents lost their primary elections earlier in 2025. Assemblywoman Barbara McCann Stamato lost her primary to fellow incumbent Assemblyman William Sampson and Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker. Assemblywoman Garnet Hall also lost her primary election earlier in 2025.

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